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A new science for a new climate
At first glance it's hard to imagine how the proliferation of
human activity upon the environment has been a major factor in
climate change given that climate change alone is nothing new.
Over two million years the earth's history has seen enormous
changes. Indeed, in the last ten thousand years the warming and
cooling of the earth has been on a larger scale that what we see
today.
The climate is however very changeable these days. Getting the
politics right has been half the fight. Unfortunately, the right
policy has been held at bay partially by having the right
knowledge of what's happening to the climate. The climate
changes we see today are the result of only a century and a half
of study, peanuts in comparison the huge shifts over the earths
history.
The recent UN Climate Change Conference sought to put in place a
policy to take over the Kyoto protocol. At its core were some
recently publicised results:
1. The warming trend on the earth's surface has been taking
place since the early part of the twentieth century. The last
ten years have been the warmest of that millennium.
2. There have been rapid signs of melting the Arctic circle. The
sea ice there has fallen by around eight percent over thirty
years.
3. The old inconsistency in the data between the temperature
rise in the atmosphere and on the planets surface seems to have
levelled out. They appear to rise in parallel.
4. The Scripps Institute of Oceanography in California noted
that the ocean has been warming at different depths for over 65
years. These results match the predictions that warming has been
induced more by greenhouse gases that as a result of small
changes in the suns heat output.
5. There has been an observed and recorded link between the sea
surface temperature and the frequency and intensity of tropical
storms, typhoons and hurricanes.
6. The existing computer models of the change in ocean currents,
in particular in the North Atlantic, are correct.
There are however still some unknowns. For example the solar
hypothesis is now known to be a lesser contributor, the
miniscule changes in the suns heat output over its eleven year
sunspot cycle is adding to the mix. Also, the aerosol emissions
from sulphurous fuel promote the formation of clouds, and as a
consequence the sunlight reflected from the earths surface
increases, effectively opposing the greenhouse gas effect.
Some even argue for the benefits of global warming, which
include for example the opening up of new shipping lanes in the
artic as the ice recedes, new oil drilling opportunities and
longer harvest periods in Canada and Russia.
It seems
climate change is inevitable and the small economic
ideas such as banning coal subsidies bear little fruit as a
means of curbing the problem. More than ever, political will
must be demonstrated at first to show to industry and
populations that it is even an issue. More importantly perhaps,
the will of the politicians must be met with achievable methods
from the technological and scientific community.
Professor Socolow is leading the way with what he calls
"stabilisation wedges". On a graph of climate change, the space
between the trend line and the stability line is known as the
"stabilisation triangle'. By dividing these triangles into
wedges and assigning realistic goals to each wedge the massive
problem is given a usable and effective solution.
The goals to assign to the wedges range from greater overall
efficiencies, the decarbonisation of electricity, fuel
displacement by low carbon electricity, methane management, and
natural carbon sinks.
By further subdividing each wedge into sub wedges, such as
decarbonised electricity being subdivided into nuclear power,
renewable energy, natural gas as an alternative to coal, and the
storage of carbon dioxide - these problems are confounded into
what everyone has been looking for. A short list of solutions
that together will balance the problem.
It seems the technology for all this exists. It is merely in
need of refinement. For example the management of carbon dioxide
from the burning of fossil fuels could be dealt with through
further carbon sequestration. A couple of power plants already
employ this particular technique to good effect. The carbon
dioxide is extracted at the source and is injected into porous
rocks deep underground to prevent it escaping into the
atmosphere.
Steam reformation is another technique. It is, in essence, a
pre-emptive technique that reacts the fuel used with water to
yield hydrogen. The hydrogen output is burnt to create
electricity.
Of all the possibilities of reworking and inventing
technologies, perhaps the best idea is the oldest idea.
Replanting programmes. The idea of photosynthesis to combine
carbon dioxide with water and sunlight is a relatively cheap and
exponential idea and would be hugely effective.
About the author:
Jacob Fiennes is an enthusiastic traveller and photographer with
a passion for discovery. He is a founder and regular contributor
to the hugely popular worldwide hotel reservations site TravelBX.com. Visit the site
for your next hotel room reservation, flight ticket, tailored
holiday package and much more. >> http://www.travelbx.com
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